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China watching communities to other comparative cases. On its surface it seems like a similar story: hardening of views in response to objective changes in the balance of power and some nasty things that the Chinese are doing. But if you actually look beneath the hood, you see very culturally specific China communities that are dealing and engaging with governments in the UK and Australia really quite differently. So just one snippet if you like in Australia, in the United Kingdom, you lack this large think tank community which are struggling often in a very sort of tough way, robust way one might say, in order to potentially get into the next administration.

So policy has been changed in Australia and the UK by a very small group of people in and around the national security executive, if you want to put it in those terms. And just one more point on that. China watching itself is a Washington DC phenomenon, then as one person told me, I think you can swing a cat at the corner of K and 14th and probably hit a China watcher, which was absolutely true.

I mean, actually, I think I said in one of the talks that you gave, you actually did show a map of DC and where these actual think tanks are. So this phrase, the canary is in the coal mine is absolutely fascinating. I think the comparative angle is absolutely fascinating.

So we agree, we stake oppositions on U. That all very much comes into play in the policies that we advocate with respect to China. So this is a very prominent idea in your approach. So how do the anti-engagers and the pro -engagers think about these issues? What are core American values?

And is that a good way of sort of describing the differences? And does it end up sort of reflecting something more about their general worldview rather than just the China-specific policy predilections? Let me sort of start with the first point, which is about the way in which different types of China watcher and different members of the China watching community do or do not reflect back on the United States.

As soon as you start talking about the United States, your China capital takes a hit, unless you can play a very difficult game, which is to speak about China and the United States simultaneously. If one is at the center of the field and have quite a lot of capital in the community, then one might be able to do it. And you see that strongly with some of the think tanks that already have a political view baked into them.

It goes to everyone within the China watching community. Kaiser: Yeah, but you have put that question to them and you can tease it out. But if we go back to those groups that I was talking about a little earlier, which is the sort of the engagers, the strategic competitors, the new cold warriors and the new engagers, there are sort of some tendencies that I think can be brought out. I think a lot of the older engagers — so the folks who are actually sort of long time span, interested and engaged in the policy itself, or many of them former diplomats, et cetera — many of them I think grew up with a positive view of the United States in world politics and a positive view of China.

Kaiser: So what are then the things that seem to correlate strongly with positions on China? I know those people. I know them very well. And if you prefer a different answer, we can talk about that one as well.

And from there, you can then infer some things. So it is really this embodied emotional thing. Kaiser: Yeah. I am confident in saying that most of the time when I meet an American, for example, I can suss out their partisanship without asking them a single actual political question in conversation. More and more as you sort of get a sense of people, you can tell from the could of their jib a little bit, that old phrase. Are they wearing a suit? What kind of suit? Does the suit fit particularly well or not?

We could all draw that person if we wanted to. David: Patches and all that kind of stuff. But so these are useful stereotypes. And you realize that no, their worldview comes from a principled realist position in IR theory. Kaiser: So yeah. David: Well, I think if I can name some name Elbridge Colby, who I spoke to a few weeks ago surprised me a little bit because he was someone who I thought was a real China hawk. And actually he has a very nuanced intellectual position, which is derived from a close reading of real international relations theory and a clear eye assessment and desire to prioritize limited U.

Strategy of denial is all about the rational use of limited resources. And so you could absolutely imagine someone like Colby in administrations of a Republican or a Democratic stripe, certainly not as clear as you initially thought. Is there a difference that you can see in the types of thinking that are employed by people on different sides of this divide? Has that struck you? David: Yes, I think so. Again, going back to this issue of how my much you can take into account the United States and how much you have to think about what the United States of maybe some limitations of ourselves.

And here I think people like Stape Roy…. So just see everything through this one single lens. I suspect that this is the result of national security overcapacity following, September 11th and the Forever Wars. I understand, but…. David: No. It does seem to be the case that the conversation has become sort of securitized or one predominantly about military security issues.

And that is then sort of sociological interesting to me because it talks about the different types of capital that are coming to the fore if you like. A lot of military security, generalists who are not necessarily China folks at all, the imagery of the cold war becoming more prominent, you saw the recent Foreign Affairs issue pieces by John Lewis Gaddis and Hal Brands really talking about the cold war.

That kind of imagery becomes the central one. And it really does push out folks that might have a more diplomatic viewpoint or a more economic viewpoint. A big part of the story about engagements demise is the way in which the business community sort of checked out for a little while.

I think from what I spoke to people around , , even sort of Wall Street and big, big corporations were okay with a tougher China policy or maybe a little later than that. And now that sort of ship has sailed, unfortunately. Trump of course brought people in who were regarded as completely beyond the pale and outside of this community. I mean, Mike Pillsbury and Peter Navarro, they were not regarded as China watcher insider types, but then there were people like Matt Pottinger who was kind of an outlier.

I dare say most of us from that cohort came away with a very different take on China. There were still some China-watchers sort of brought in and briefed by the administration on certain issues. Ryan Hass has a great story about, when he came in to brief the China team at Trump Tower. The most influence is really are the people who were inside. China relations types. Came in with the commitment to change U. They were well-respected China experts. And this is for me really important, because it does mean that arguments about the community perhaps not mattering because Trump has made up his mind on China are wide of the mark.

The China community still matters because Matt Pottinger and those people who were his assistants and deputies, et cetera, were part of the China watching community now. So how I would talk about it is to, again, how to put a, sort of the China hawk, China dove thing to one side and say, well, and to adopt sort of a path-dependent sort of view, which is that once Matt Pottinger and his team successfully reframe U.

Are the arguments about how it is better than engagement and how engagement failed if not completely correct, at least worth getting on board with? Campbell and Sullivan themselves wrote something about sort of living with China that signal, I think, a willingness to take on this frame.

And so my reading of the Biden administration throughout this year has been trying to operationalize and continue the process of operationalizing strategic competition and not necessarily showing much in the way of desire to roll it back or go back to some sort of engagement, which they themselves were really important intellectual critics of.

Kaiser: Talking about it in terms of past dependency seems to sort of let them off the hook for what you as a sociologist might otherwise describe as pursuing professional advancement under a new meta-narrative, pursuing personal influence under a new dominant paradigm that that seems maybe more or accurate.

David: Yes, I think it does. So really that intervention was mainly a political one. And in that sense, trying to broaden the strategic competition umbrella to one where Democrats could get on board with that as well. So this was a sort of a broadly speaking political move and also one that would line up someone like Kurt to be in positions of high authority on China.

Again, going back to this argument about the culture of US National Security, this is a really big feature of how the thing works. What does this tell us? David: Well, it tells us that this consensus in Washington about the China challenge and strategic competition is not at least on the Democratic side I think reflecting clear preferences among a large chunk of the U.

I think it affirms my intuitions, which is that these large-scale macro factors, balance of power or in this case, domestic opinion, are constructs rather than necessarily real things, which focuses our attention once again on elites and on what experts and people in the China field. But in this case more broadly, perhaps the media, I think is key are saying about China.

I read Fox News every day and download at least one piece that is critical of China every single day. Well, what is the U. Kaiser: Absolutely. I mean, you are at this point, a Wilson Center, China fellow this year. Is this a danger for you? I mean, I actually hear you sometimes talking about it without that objectivity and that dispassionate kind of thing.

One of the ways in which one can become a China watcher, I think is to just pay attention. And so again, I have thousands and thousands of downloaded articles from the major newspapers. The pool of the field is very strong. And what it does is it tries to push you into one position or the other.

So these labels — are you an engager or a strategic competitor? So I found myself having wonderful conversations with people who are the most fervent engagers and the most hawkish of anti-China experts and having very nice personal conversations and sort of nascent friendships if you like that if I did this for more years, I hope would, would become genuine friendships.

And then we can start to talk about what are very difficult issues of what we do about Taiwan. What do we do about human rights, et cetera. David: Well, out myself as someone somewhere in the field. I mean, for your own sanity, save yourself, please.

No, not having a dog in the fight that would be kind of, I mean, I envy people sometimes for that reason. Can you just quickly walk us through sort of the outlines of what these have been about and what we should be looking for?

Because there will be a book coming out of this too, but the papers first. So snippets of this have already appeared in the journal International Affairs , sort of the British version of Foreign Affairs , which is the comparison of the U. So folks who are interested should look to that piece.

An earlier piece actually came am out in another academic journal, International Politics , which compared U. And what I showed there, which actually speaks to this question of the Chicago public opinion polling, which is that what happened in was really that Democrats and internationalist Republicans could get on board with a hawkish Russia policy.

And it was a place where the two could meet. And the question today that we face is whether the Democrats and the Republicans will genuinely come together on an even stronger, more hawkish China policy.

I talk about there. The rise of the security generalists. I also talk there about the narrowing down and the specialization of the China scholarly community, which has been a big feature the way in which scholarship has separated itself off from policy such that the old style, China watchers think Ken Lieberthal, Mike Oksenberg, Ezra Vogel that were both prominent academics and prominent in the policy debate is becoming less and less likely as quantitative statistical methods and more arcane academic debates really take precedence in the strong disciplines rather than sort of an area studies, China focus.

And I mean, this is really the mission statement, countering this pernicious trend is the whole mission statement of the National Committee and their Public Intellectuals Program, especially. And in terms of the book, a book, The End of Engagement hopefully will be out some point next year, or early thereafter. In it, I actually compare U. China watchers with U. Russia watchers, which is a whole different conversation. But it speaks to precisely these themes about how engagement became politicized and implicated in prestige struggles within the China watching community.

And so a lot of my outlets, I talk to an international security international relations audience. National Security in the Asia-Pacific.

Check it out. I learned an awful lot listening to that talk. It was fantastic. All right. Thank you so much for taking the time. It was such a pleasure to speak with you about this stuff. So check that out. David, what do you have for us? David: So I think listeners absolutely have to check out a recent book by a French sociologist called Gregoire Chamayou called The Ungovernable Society. It takes us into this moment where rebellion was in the air, and people were throwing spanners literally into cars on the production lines in Detroit, et cetera.

And how a new, what he calls a new art of government came in to split up trade unions, to attack sabotaging workers and bring a new form of politics into the American corporation.

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