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But a marginal one because a higher high was not made after At 15 we are able to draw a line defining resistance—a line which will become a support line. At 16 we get a new Basing Point. At 17 we find a new Basing Point and at 18 we can identify a resistance line. The spurt across this line is both gratifying and a warning. Because it becomes a flagpole from which the flag at 19 flies.

A flag can serve as a Basing Point, so we move our stop again, fully aware that the end may be approaching. The trendline at 20 is further confirmation of this environment due to its steepness. But we see two good anchor points in 16 and 17 and draw trendline 21—a better line to defend. A good reaction finally occurs at 22 giving a strong Basing Point and good rationale for raising the stop. Notice the interesting fact that points 22 and 24 have come back to rest on the trendline we drew at As the tempo has increased and the volatility 24 furnishes us another valid Basing Point.

Even 25 is a valid point and we can now see the clear support line at When this line is pierced at 27 upon extraordinary volume, and in the process takes out our Basing Point stop from 25, it is clearly time to exit the train. Materials will be found there which aid in the study of the materials. We find the wave low Basing Point by the three-days-away rule; we find the new high Basing Point by marking wave highs and subsequent new highs.

If a new high were made subsequent to this new high we would reset the Basing Point again if we were using this variant of the procedure. I call it Variant 2. Once again the one armed economist rules. Incidentally, if emotional distress occurs in this or other like situations it is a message to you that you are too emotionally attached to the market.

Complete market maturity is not achieved until such situations can be viewed with relative equanimity. So that the event is viewed with detached interest and a plan to set things right. On the other hand after having accumulated large paper profits the issue collapses and snatches back from you a third or more of your hard earned profits.

If you had only advanced stops based on new highs! As conventional market wisdom has it. What essentially occurs when using Variant 2 of the procedure is: when blowoff or runaway conditions occur the procedure changes from selling weakness to selling strength. I believe very strongly in the variation of tactics generally. And I also am intimately familiar with the pitfalls of varying tactics.

But I like the procedure in general and also think that knowing when to use it and when not can require a great deal of experience and emotional coolness in potentially high stress conditions. The Variant 1 procedure is simpler and naturally expands to accommodate the high volatility market which ejects the trader attempting to escape the inevitable collapse; before going on to new completely unexpected heights.

Or lucky. The Complete Basing Points Procedure 1. A wave high is made, recognized by no higher prices coming for the moment. Obviously this comes into effect for the next trading day. This low is found by watching each day after the previous high until no lower prices are made a potential wave low, or Basing Point Candidate.

Obviously the new stop is established the day after the three-days- away have occurred. It illustrates the complete procedure, showing establishment of Basing Points made by wave lows and by higher highs. This is a blow up of the period in the chart where higher high conditions exist. As might be obvious the higher high rules begin to come into play late in the life of a trend, in runaway and blow-off stages. This is an overall view of the stages shown in the detail charts in Chapter 5. The previous candlestick chart is used for the close-up analysis.

This chart puts into broad perspective the relative level of stops using the Variant 2 method. As can be seen setting stops from new higher highs results in stops closer to the market prices. This can be good or bad, depending on what the market does to you. There is another method Magee advocated for surging and blow off markets. He called this alternative method progressive stops. It is explained in the 9th edition.

Strictly speaking while there is a variation in tactics involved in using new highs for stop calculation, this method is a twist on selling on strength. Variant 2 is still lagging stops behind prices. A pure strength selling method would attempt to time exit on a blow off day, or a key reversal day or a one day reversal, or even on a strong long running day up. This is perhaps a little easier to visualize on the downside. A panic selling day which tends to finish at the lows would provoke an exit on the close.

If a new high is made without an intervening wave low Basing Point the process starts over from the new high. Thus, a price move which went from 10 to The Complete Basing Points Procedure - 39 The Representative Case Fully Analyzed using wave lows and new highs The case will not be unfamiliar to readers, and its use will fully highlight the differences found in the procedure. The same materials will be used, and the differences will be boldfaced in the text.

A rounding bottom, or perhaps a scallop 2. Resistance or breakout line 3. Wake up call on volume 4. Run Day, big volume; Breakout through line 2; sure entry signal 5. A weak BP because of shallow retracement 8. Test of BP at 8 A trendline drawn after point 9 BP BP candidate which fails 3 day rule A potential BP but not a very good one because new high has not been made from 13 BP 16A.

New High: BP 17A. New Higher High Flag which becomes BP. High Trendline, but too steep to last Trendline BP 24A. BP 25A. Stopped out at Horizontal trend line BP at 25 stop Watch with interest the reactions against the trend. It is called the running of the lambs. At 16 we get a Basing Point. Flags and flagpoles are messages that the market has heated up and now wants close watching.

But we see two good trendline anchor points in 16 and 17 and draw trendline 21—a better line to defend. As the tempo has increased, and the volatility, 24 furnishes us another valid Basing Point. Chapter 4 Calculating Filters, or Stop Distance, from Basing Point In Chapter 27 of the 9th Edition Magee proposed a method for determining the size of the filter to be used in setting stops calculated from Basing Points.

The table he used depended on the Sensitivity Index Appendix he had laboriously compiled from hand made charts. The Sensitivity Index might be looked on as a highly pragmatic form of beta, or as a hybrid of beta and volatility.

In the modern context it needs refining, or substitution. I proposed, in the 8th Edition, that an alternate method could be used based on implied volatility.

In a roaring general bull market such as Microsoft in the 90s a Basing Point may never be severely tested in an individual instrument. In a sideways mule market Basing Points may be frequently tested in the uptrend of an individual instrument. And in some stocks testing may occur as a regular phenomenon.

The essential problem in calculating filters is obvious. A stop immediately under a low, or near a horizontal support line is a sitting duck. As the market searches for price equilibrium it probes down to find demand. We may look at this from two angles.

One, it does this to suck in short sellers and to encourage weak holders to sell. Two, it does this to discover market-determined consensus price. Either way as it hovers on price wave lows market mischief makers will attempt to take out the low and find stops placed too close. Depending on the general market trend this may be difficult, as in the Microsoft case or easy as in futures and volatile instruments.

So the filter must be calibrated to the individual conditions of the market and the instrument. A Pragmatic and Empirical Way to Determine Filter Size The best and most naturalistic way of determining filter size is to analyze the issue at hand. Examine its volatility not just its standard deviation, but also its average true range its wave patterns and its characteristic habits.

Included in this study should be special attention paid to behavior in three sigma conditions, or in abnormal market conditions. From this study will emerge the most appropriate filter size.

Alternatively we might do it by a table look up. If we were going to be punctilious in our filter calculation we would probably have a number of tables. Figure 5. Table of Stop Distances from Tech- nical Analysis of Stock Trends want to know the rate of change of the market, and of the sector and of the instrument, and the volatilities of these, and the beta, and we could go on and on until we had spent so much time that the market had closed and we had missed the trade.

So, for the creatively lazy please include the author in this group I include here a handmade quasi-scientific table for quick use. Traders are warned to examine this skeptically and validate it for their situations before backing it with money.

Emmended for the current StairStops book. This operation can be done most easily and quickly with a calculator or computer routine. All of the foregoing may seem needlessly complicated to the average reader. We realize that many will not care to take the time and trouble to work out an exact, scientific stop level for each of their occasional commit- ments. However, the method of determining where stops should be placed in a systematic and consistent way has been given in some detail here, so that the principles involved will be perfectly clear, and so that you can change or adapt the various factors if you feel your experience justifies changes.

For most ordinary purposes, a simplified table of stop distances will be sufficient. This table, which follows, gives you the approximate stop distance you would get by the method outlined above, for stocks in various price classifications and of various degrees of sensitivity.

Implied volatility could also be used at the same levels, as recommended in previous editions. Implied volatility is produced from, for instance, the Black—Scholes Model, when the model is solved for volatility rather than price, taking the market price as the given. Calculating Filters, or Stop Distance, From Basing Point - 49 The stop level should be marked on your chart as a horizontal line as soon as an actual or theoretical transaction has been entered into, and it should be maintained until the transaction is closed, or until progressive stops which we will explain in a moment have been started in order to close it out.

In the case of purchases, the stop level ordinarily will be at the indicated distance below the last previous Minor Bottom. In the case of short sales, it ordinarily would be at the indicated distance above the last Minor Top. To determine the position of this stop level, simply figure what the percentage distance would amount to at the price of the stock. End Quote. A hand tailored method for determining filters This procedure can undoubtedly be improved upon.

Implied volatility is not so farfetched, but depends on an option series. So the instrument volatility could be used. I would opt for a 23 day moving average of actual volatility.

I am not competely happy with an inflexible table and generally for my own purposes try to hand tailor the parameter. As I remarked implied earlier in this discussion I think it is quite possible that this filter might vary according to market conditions. This is a speculation on my part as I have not done any specific research on variable filters, but I have seen filters which worked to perfection in some markets malfunction in other markets.

Once again this emphasizes the particularity of every market condition. The past never repeats exactly. As they say, you can never step into the same river twice, and the ship always sails on a different sea.

Chapter 5 Step by Step Illustration of the Marking of Basing Points The three-days-away procedure is not easily absorbed for some reason; bright graduate students wrestle with its details.

The following charts walk the reader through the process. BP indicates a Basing Point. Obviously that is not known at the moment it occurs. Chart BP 1. In this chart we see a high made 6th after a strong surge. This is both the wave high and the beginning of the down wave.

Each day after this high day is a Basing Point Candidate. On the 14th a low is made which is the last in the downwave. The following two days are away and are marked Y. The following day returns to the Basing Point day range and is not away, and is marked with N. Note that no effort has been made to indicate the precise price level of the stop -- that only the concept is illustrated. The stop level is carefully placed on Chart Figure Chart BP 2 In this chart we see a strong advance ending the 6th which is also the beginning of the downwave.

We will pass over the first part of the chart for the moment. The downwave is marked by several strong down days ending with a gap. The next day is a strong recovery and we immediately mark the gap day as a Basing Point Candidate. Two Y days follow almost confirming our gap day as the Basing Point.

But the next day is a running down day, and it is followed by another run day down. We must examine the following days to determine that.

Three days follow which are not away. Then three away days quickly follow. This day is so long that 15 days elapse before a true Basing Point is made at a lower low the 9th. And we do not know that fact until 6 days have passed. Looked at on the longer term charts the running prices from the 15th are clearly seen as a flagpole. When the price breaks out of the flag formation we may take the low of the flag as the new Basing Point when three-days-away have been made from the high of the flag formation.

This same procedure may be used for a rectangle or consolidation formation which follows a surge in prices. In this chart we set a Basing Point the 4th based on a wave low, then we set another Basing Point at the low of the flag. In both cases we are following Variant 1 of the procedure. The notes on new highs in this chart are explained in the next chart caption. The difference here is that we are now looking at the setting of Basing Points using new highs.

Here we see how setting stops with Variant 2 of the procedure moves the stops faster and higher. This rule kicks in at numbers with alphabetics, 16A, 17A, etc. The wide angle view of these events is in Figure As in the case of the one armed economist, trade offs always exist between the rigid and rigorous use of algorithmic procedures and the more sensitive method of varying tactics judgmentally.

Rigid rules vs discretion is both a theoretical and a practical question. And it will never be settled. The practitioner must settle the question for himself. This he may do by tracking his actual results when confronted with the opportunity or pressure or necessity of departing from the algorithmic procedure. The procedure for bear markets is a mirror image of the above, with the same disclaimers and caveats. Without exception they report generating profits approaching the unbelievable — hundreds of percentages.

Almost without exception these profits are the results of back tests and paper trading. Naturally I roll my eyes and throw these accounts into the trash. And, for my own part, I decline to participate in hype and misleading promotion. But only because of the context of hype in talking about systems. In brief the edwards-magee. It remained short through the March bottom — The market top in the Dow, , a weekly candlestick chart.

To the technician this is an obvious picture of a market top. The picture begins coming into focus along in September as the market begins to swing broadly sideways. But the analysis has been progressing as the chart developed. All of the drawn trendlines are significant, and in March and August clear Basing Points are made. What is interesting here is that we cannot see the right hand side of the chart, but we are already defining where we will exit the market.

As the reader can see the process of identifying stop levels is relentless. A Basing Point is identified.

The stop level is raised. The process never stops, and the method itself assures that we will not be long Enron or WorldCom — or an extended bear market. Here is a daily picture of the top. The actual stop was calculated from the daily chart. I will not spend much text here on the difference between weekly and daily except to say that the use of weekly bars is inherently more conservative of Dow Theory length as explored in my book Sacred Chickens, The Holy Grail and Dow Theory than daily bars.

Daily bars are more sensitive and cause quicker signals. Daily basis chart of the market top. In this chart the stop has not been hit yet, but a higher Basing Point has been created in October. Let us emphsize that concept. The right side of the chart is absent. But the Basing Point method has identified stop levels which will indicate that the trend has changed.

When we see the continuation of this chart it will be obvious to the dimmest trader except for mutual fund managers that the trend has changed, and that it is too late to catch the change. Completion of the top and beginning of the Bear Market. Stop hit. In January of we see the stop hit that was calculated from the October Basing Point.

And what happens immediately? A Basing Point is identified to protect the short sale. The Basing Point ratchets down in May While the rest of the mutual fund, hedge fund world is asleep, thinking that the rally from March to May is a resumption of the bull market.

We Magee technicians have known for months that the market topped in the summer of We shorted at We did not have definitive proof that the trend had changed.

We could have used Variant 2 and been stopped out sooner. Because we considered Variant 1 inherently more conservative. Conservative investors win over the long term. So I have presented the big picture here of what was happening in the market. How about a picture of the actual decision and particular letter which put the edwards-magee.

Here it is, a snapshot of the letter from January From the January edwards-magee. At the bungee point? Is there a point? More points than an eight point buck. Point 1. Stop taken out. Point 2. Theoretical question about placement of stop. Usually in a sideways pattern the stop will be set below the bottom of the entire pattern. Using the basing point routine we computed the last stop here. We could do a lot more head scratching here but net net point that system is on the sidelines.

We always believe in seasoning algorithmic systems with a little judgement. But or and Dow Theory is out and the punditry is braying for a bear market -- but then they have been for months. Letters written before and after this letter will give the reader a thorough display of our thinking and analysis. The reader may also be interested in another letter written later in the year as the nature of the threat became clearer. Head and shoulders in March 28 Flying-Vampire Pigs, Levitating pundits Random egg attacks.

If this yearlong formation is a massive top perhaps a double headed head and shoulders and A low is its lower boundary then a low of is predicted. If B low is the defining point the predicted low is Remember Nils Bohr and the difficulty of forecasting. Again, it is not necessary to believe this scenario to know how to bet. I am completely accustomed to see my students make analyses of this kind. The continuation of the Bush Bear Market, ending March I will not belabor the reader with the protracted continuation of this story all online at edwards-magee.

In fact Variant 2 of the Basing Points procedure went long March 23 Variant 1 waited until August to get long. While this was the action of the Basing Point procedure other methods put the edwards-magee.

Appendix Drill Exercise in Applying The Procedure Stair Stops and Basing Points It is through back study that we learn the language of the market and observe how our method would have functioned if we had known then what we know now. This kind of study is indispensable and invaluable. We have no idea how it will turn out. Or do we have no idea? And like the camel tracks in the Arabian sands it is likely the tracks will continue going where they are going until they give some sign they have finished their trek.

Uncertainty A little thought will deal with the concept of uncertainty. The entry to a trade can have three results. The price can go up, in which case after some progress the stop can be raised locking in the profit.

Or the price can go sideways, resulting in no loss or profit. Or the price can decline to our first stop, computed and placed when we entered the trade. This will terminate our position with a known loss. The Trend Tends to Continue The most important rule of trend following is: The trend tends to continue.

This being true, if we take our position in the direction prices are going and progressively advance our stops according to market action we should realize a successful operation.

Astounding as it might seem, as Enron was in free fall, professional managers and investors who could not read the handwriting on the wall or follow the camel tracks actually increased their investments in the falling duck turkey? Long-term trend following investors buy strength, not weakness.

As we have seen, buying weakness may result in cornering the market for Enron or WorldCom. Appendix Drill - 69 The Stair Stops Exercise In this exercise we are presented with the real life problem of not being able to see the right hand side of the chart. It is, as Columbus discovered, terra incognita. So how are we to identify a trend and stick to it until it has changed?

And how are we to deal with the inevitable reactions against the trend? Surprisingly, there are several simple methods. In the following case I illustrate an example of the principle of buying strength and sticking with the trend until the procedure indicates the trend has exhausted itself.

Details of their identification and use follow. Stair Stops and the three-days-away rule To identify a Basing Point in actual trading, the trader watches each day in a retracement until the reaction ends and prices begin to advance again. Each day after the low day is checked to determine that it is out of the range of the low day.